Hurricane Frances makes landfall near Cape Canaveral
September 4-5, 2004
This is how the story unfolded. We didn't know what was going to happen. At first Hurricanne Frances' forecast track would have made a direct hit on KSC as a Category 4 storm, with 140mph winds. That's a worst-case scenario which would have resulted in destruction of the buildings which contain the space shuttle orbiters, and undoubtedly damage-beyond-repair of the orbiters themselves. Fortunately, that didn't happen.

During the Hurricane

 Here's how my web page collected the data as it was happenning through the weekend...

The space shuttle program hasn't even returned to flight yet and there's a new threat. On Sept 4, 2004, Hurricane Frances hit Florida's east coast just south of Cape Canaveral. But the storm moved so slowly that areas were exposed to damaging winds for a much longer period of time than usual. Reportedly the buildings can take 110mph winds, which is about what Frances had weakened to before landfall in Florida. KSC experienced winds less than 100mph, but there are unknowns about effects of any flying debris and tornadoes. So we'll all be watching.

On Sept 5, AP reported that a historic Mercury Redstone rocket which stood on display at the KSC credentialing center in Titusville was blown over. SpaceRef has a story "What Has Frances done to NASA Kennedy Space Center - and its Employees?" Once Florida Today re-opened in Melbourne FL, they posted a story "Kennedy Space Center: Shuttles' fate unknown". NASAWatch.com has more links on Frances' effects on KSC. NASA will send initial crews in to check on damage at 7AM - I'd expect that news helicopters will have made an initial assessment before that, even if they have to do it from some distance.

Brevard County FL has Frances-related announcements. As of early evening on Sunday Sept 5, the causeways and bridges are open to residents of Merritt Island, which is the town on the south end of the same island where Kennedy Space Center is located. The barrier islands, such as to the town of Cape Canaveral, are not yet open.

The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Brevard County - the warning is for a string of super-cell thunderstorms coming ashore at Cape Canaveral. We probably won't get news about whether there's any damage until after the storm passes, because NASA Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (part of Patrick AFB) have been completely evacuated. CNN also pointed out this radar-identified tornado at Cape Canaveral, showing the "classic hook shape" of a tornado on doppler radar. I found it on the lower-resolution NWS radar image and marked it up.
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This is the NWS radar image for Melbourne, FL (updated regularly from NWS web site, 42K PNG)
This is the NOAA/NHC image of wind effects area from Frances. (updated regularly from NHC web site, 16K PNG)
[download image]

After the Hurricane

Fortunately, the hurricane made landfall farther south, with the eye coming ashore near Jupiter Inlet. (Ironic, isn't it? The eye hit Jupiter. :-)

Also, the storm weakened over the Bahamas and struck Florida as a Category 2 hurricane, with 105mph winds.


Ian Kluft